Why do you buy cards? Is it because it was something you did when you were younger with a family member, reliving all the innocent joy you had before entering a much more cold and harsh world? Was it because someone told you to do so and you listened, discovering and connecting even more with a person you already had common interests with? Was it because you thought or heard it was a great idea to make some money and get you ahead in life by hustling to make a little extra?
There are numerous reasons people have gravitated towards trading cards over the years and there is no single correct answer.
In this edition of The Playbook, we’ll go over the different ways that people collect and (more importantly to many of you!) how and what we are collecting in Formula 1.
Just like those guys out in the O2 in London, let's get this amazing season started right!
Present Fun, Future Value
In 10 Words:
Memories, good & bad, create the best long term cards.
In 100 Words:
Though most people believe popularity, performance and statistics should create value, many times they do not. Many people also believe that eye appeal and aesthetics create value with trading cards, they are also very often not correct. Long term trading cards have always been a Supply/Demand industry and its history has been littered with successful cards and sets that fit the Supply/Demand model to perfection over time. Are there current cards that people will “regret” not picking up? We believe there are and we’ll share some of our favorites we are seeing in F1 with you in just a bit.
In 1,000 Words:
The Junk Wax Era. Everyone’s heard of it.
Here’s the simple explanation: Joe Montana was one of the most famous and collected athletes at the time. He had tens of thousands of card collectors. Let’s say he even had 20,000 true card collectors who wanted every card made of him. Well, they made around 2,000,000 of his 1992 Upper Deck Card. That would mean that each of the 20,000 collectors could have 100 copies each and ONLY after that point when one of them wanted to buy another copy would it be a supply/demand positive situation. No matter how gorgeous a card is, if they make more than the amount of people who will want them they most likely won’t hold great long term value. Just ask all the cardboard boxes in garages across America that still house these Montana cards.
So turning back to Formula 1, what cards fit the Supply/Demand model the best? Supply has been pretty easy to define in F1 trading cards so far as most cards are pretty limited and the rarest cards - Red /5’s, 1/1's & Dynasty all have such limited production runs that anyone can tell you they simply did not make enough to supply the level of popularity that these worldwide famous athletes already have.
Demand? This is tricky and honestly takes a LOT more than 1,000 words (I only have 770 left!) but we’ll try here. I’ve always classified trading card demand in two different categories – current demand and long term demand. Probably pretty self explanatory with their names, one is in demand at the moment and one is projected to be in demand in the future as things settle. Most times, items with the most current demand also naturally evolve into the items that have the most long term demand. History is littered with them – Air Jordan’s, PMGs, Bitcoin, Beanie Babies (Oops!), Zion Williamson RC’s (Oooooops!). Point on the last two are that not everything that starts out popular ends up that way in the long run.
The goal for me has always been to find the rarest of the rare in the supply/demand equation, the unicorn if you will – items that do not have strong current demand but have very predictable long term demand. It might sound rare, but history is also littered with them – 1952 Topps, Tom Brady, Gold Prizms, 1999 Pokemon, Kylian Mbappe, and actually an incredibly long list of amazing cards that go on this path (sportscards are amazing when done right!). If you were able to find any of these during their low demand periods, you are very likely the biggest winner in your sportscard group no matter the decade or how much money you put into collecting. Both groups of items have inspired good & bad memories for collectors over time, creating a wave of enthusiasm mixed with regret that builds strength in the best collectibles over time.
So, does Formula 1 have these types of cards in it’s early stages?
Yes and they also happen to be, in our opinion, the most important cards that are made in Formula 1 every year. This will not be our recommendation forever but as the market currently stands, there are clearly no better F1 cards made than the Topps Dynasty cards every year. Each card is like it’s own piece of mini art, with two different canvases – one for the player to personally design and the other for the manufacturer. Just like with art, no two are ever alike. That alone should drive the long term demand of these unique pieces for decades in the future as people reminisce over previous generations with these limited edition pieces.
Supply? This is the BIG one. They simply did not make enough of these to satisfy the long term demand…or the current demand. Yes, current demand also! Go look up any driver. You’ll find that despite there being 4-5 years worth of Dynasty cards made of most drivers, there are very few of them actually available for sale. Take a look at the BIG F1 auctions that just completed or are happening right now. Of the 2,066 total auctions that are being offered, 42 of them are Topps Dynasty’s. Yes, 1 in every 50 (FIFTY) Cards being offered in these very public auctions contain Dynasty. Why so little? Could be random chance. However as someone who puts these auctions together, I can tell you it’s simply that no one wants to let go of their Dynasty cards. They are too beautiful or too significant to each collector.
And there we have the last thing that makes the most desired (Demand) collectibles in history. There’s a reason that despite there being 77 Mantle 1952 PSA 7’s that only one was offered for sale in 2024 despite it’s $250,000 price tag – everyone who owns one doesn’t want to sell theirs no matter the record breaking price they can get. When people start to literally choose collectibles over money (and lots of it!) you create the biggest winners in history.
OK so now to the question that everyone’s been wondering – what are we collecting? Though there are a lot more, we’ll stick with these broad items that we look for:
2020 Topps Dynasty Anything – There are too many reasons to list for this one but here are some basics: Only 3,746 total cards ever made (including only 137 Lewis Hamilton’s & 168 Max Verstappen’s). First EVER Topps F1 On-Card Autograph Cards made – meaning that the player actually touched the card and these are probably the 1st cards of themselves they’ve ever seen. Gorgeous Race-Worn (Yes, Race-Worn) pieces of Racesuits (Yes, Racesuits). 1st Year 2020 Topps. Basically Perfection. We prefer the Single Patch, but anything is good really from this set. Again, only 3,746 total cards made.
2020 Topps Chrome Limited Cards – When we say “Limited” here, it’s a sliding scale that we see developing gradually over time. If you’ve seen me in person, I always say the words “while they are available….” and that will definitely apply here. While they WERE available the Superfractor 1/1’s were amazing to purchase, after all they are the BEST versions that will be made of those particular cards EVER. Most all of them are no longer available though. So, next up (and naturally fitting the Supply/Demand equation) are the Red Refractor /5’s. Though they are disappearing almost rapidly, they are still somewhat available and we are monitoring them quite a bit. If you don’t have one yet, might be a good idea before they go the direction of the Superfractors eventually. After they disappear, naturally it will be the Orange Refractor /25’s and then the Gold Refractor /50’s (we DO think the True Gold Refractor /50’s may actually jump above this pecking order, but that’s for another Playbook for another time).
I’m at 1,138 words now. Supply/Demand will do that to anyone =)
And that will wrap up this edition of The Playbook. Hope you all enjoyed this and thank you for all the kind words of encouragement. We still have a lot more to share and looking forward to doing so. We do have a “Playbook” on what we will be sharing but please let us know if there’s anything that you’d like us to talk about and we can take a few detours along the way as we did this month. We love cards and love talking about them, sharing our thoughts and experiences. Most importantly, we've loved being able to be purposeful over the years and point people in the right direction to do cards for the longer haul. Our inbox is always open to questions, suggestions and comments at info@grid-xchange.com.
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